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Post by ianr on Aug 2, 2020 6:56:09 GMT
I doubt whether the 'young' have even heard of cummings, johnson or his dad or take any notice of the papers let alone be influenced by them. What I've seen throughout is very little effort being put into social distancing and wearing of face coverings 'jeez even the drug dealers round here don't wear a masks ' the teens to 30's seem not to give a toss no doubt they'll get their comeuppance undoubtedly taking some of us with them. Herd immunity 'terrible phrase' may be the only way forward. I'm sorry Dave we can't be having a police state giving them all these powers, will never wipe the smile off their faces ian
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Post by accipiter on Aug 2, 2020 8:22:34 GMT
Ian, there is no such thing as herd immunity since the virus can be caught over again, neither do I understand this desperate need to take holidays; now that I think about it since the population of this county is far too soft. My Mother and Father both doctors never took a holiday until they were well into their sixties. Take a break yes but flying off on holidays under the present situation is pure selfishness in the extreme during this present life and death struggle. Incidentally, I also have members of my family working in the NHS today and they wouldn’t dream of taking a holiday now. If something is not done soon about control (referring to martial law) then it will not be safe to venture out for fear of being robbed and murdered on the streets; and that is not being over dramatic either with so many out of work and all that involves.
Alan
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Post by Psamathe on Aug 2, 2020 10:00:51 GMT
Re: Herd Immunity I think i's complex and the UK seems keen to ignore findings from other countries (UK has been really suffering from "not invented here" syndrome).
From what I've read (qualified below), the worse your symptoms the greater the antibody and immune response and thus it's expected you'll hold some immunity longer. So, if this is the case, the majority who catch it and are asymptomatic will have little/short duration immunity. Or a mild infection and not so much immune system reaction so expected shorter/weaker immunity. So I guess herd immunity depends on how strong a reaction a vaccine can create and if we can re-vaccinate (e.g. dengue - where you normally can't).
But there seem so many pre-print papers being released (without or before peer review) that is gets difficult to know what is Stella Immanuel "Alien DNA" stuff and what is more reputable research. OK, Stella Immanuel stuff is not too difficult to detect but some pre-print stuff seems e.g. based on very low sample sizes and anecdotal reports.
Ian
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Post by accipiter on Aug 2, 2020 11:38:51 GMT
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Post by rowanberry on Aug 2, 2020 20:34:00 GMT
I spoke to my friend in Manchester yesterday- they are back in lockdown, and are to avoid "meeting people from different households indoors"... but the pubs are open. It's no wonder everyone is confused!
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Post by Psamathe on Aug 2, 2020 21:15:37 GMT
I spoke to my friend in Manchester yesterday- they are back in lockdown, and are to avoid "meeting people from different households indoors"... but the pubs are open. It's no wonder everyone is confused! Something I saw yesterday (indirectly on Twitter as I'm not a Twat). I believe it's from a wedding organiser or company upset by the sudden cancellation or new restrictions but it does illustrate the inconsistency in what Government are doing. I believe people spot that inconsistency and if it does not make sense/logic/common sense then many wont be so inclined to comply. Ian
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Post by ianr on Aug 3, 2020 6:29:04 GMT
Ian, there is no such thing as herd immunity since the virus can be caught over again, neither do I understand this desperate need to take holidays; now that I think about it since the population of this county is far too soft. My Mother and Father both doctors never took a holiday until they were well into their sixties. Take a break yes but flying off on holidays under the present situation is pure selfishness in the extreme during this present life and death struggle. Incidentally, I also have members of my family working in the NHS today and they wouldn’t dream of taking a holiday now. If something is not done soon about control (referring to martial law) then it will not be safe to venture out for fear of being robbed and murdered on the streets; and that is not being over dramatic either with so many out of work and all that involves. Alan Well of course there is such a thing as herd immunity whether or not it will have much effect regarding this virus is yet to be seen. MARTIAL LAW!!! OMG Giving the police even more power 'they have all they need' and bringing in the army in to control the people just won't work, well not until china takes over after all it's working well in hong kong for them. It depends how deep a conspiracy theory you want but I'm beginning to wonder if it was dropped on the world on purpose and that's a whole new can of worms. ian
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Post by Psamathe on Aug 3, 2020 9:02:21 GMT
Ian, there is no such thing as herd immunity since the virus can be caught over again..... Alan Well of course there is such a thing as herd immunity whether or not it will have much effect regarding this virus is yet to be seen. .....
ian As you (ian) says, definitely could be herd immunity. Jury seems still out on catching it more than once as certainly in early days the catching twice instances were (in some cases) due to false test results and never actually having recovered fully (there is a long form infection - same virus but for some people it's not over in 7 days but can go on for months with varying symptoms). I think the question about herd immunity for C-19 is down to how effective vaccines can be. It is looking like immunity through infection depends of how bad your symptoms are (at least in terms of antibody which is currently being assumed to reflect degree of immunity). Asymptomatic and minor symptoms as you get a minimal anti-body response which is thought to result in minimal and short term immunity - which does not contribute much to herd immunity. Major symptoms=big antibody response which is thought to mean better and longer immunity. But major symptoms and lots of people will die - so if Cummings get his ideas accepted (seeking the virus spread through the population so create herd immunity) then massive death toll (but that sort of thing happens when you get people making the decisions who have no idea what they are doing). So herd immunity will depend on an effective vaccine (which will likely need topping-up at regular intervals). Re: People making decisions not knowing what they are doing, UK is still pretty well the worst in the world for death rate (despite US and Brazil's failings). You have to ignore Belgium due to the way it counts C-19 deaths and its testing regime so that still put's us at the top (as of 3 Aug) www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/. Ian
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Post by Psamathe on Aug 3, 2020 12:24:45 GMT
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Post by ianr on Aug 4, 2020 6:24:50 GMT
Regarding the way deaths are counted I thought we were looking into how are C-19 deaths are calculated in England. If I heard correctly the other week if you've tested positive for C-19 and later die. Regardless of what you die of your counted as someone dying who had tested positive for C-19 and added to the list. So are results could be somewhat screwed. A bit pete tong especially if you've been run over by a bus 'other vehicles are available' ian
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Post by Psamathe on Aug 4, 2020 7:40:27 GMT
Regarding the way deaths are counted I thought we were looking into how are C-19 deaths are calculated in England. If I heard correctly the other week if you've tested positive for C-19 and later die. Regardless of what you die of your counted as someone dying who had tested positive for C-19 and added to the list. So are results could be somewhat screwed. A bit pete tong especially if you've been run over by a bus 'other vehicles are available' ian I heard that some time ago (when the Gov. used it as a "reason" to stop publishing some stats). Apparently is makes no real difference and in fact analysis has shown it can make things worse! For example, ONS counts deaths where C-19 is listed as a cause of death on the certificate (from fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-death-count-data/) So count number of deaths where C-19 listed as a cause on death certificate and you get higher numbers that the Gov. counts (the figures they were trying to push lower for PR reasons). Also, gets complex given how C-19 can have non-respiratory and long lasting impacts. So suffer C-19 and recover but your cardio-vascular system may easily still be impacted so suffer a heart attack and it may be that C-19 is a (significant?) component of the trigger. But ONS also provide what is generally regarded as the better indicator "excess deaths" which is much higher. Trouble is testing in UK is still a disaster. For a lot of the pandemic so far many with symptoms have not been tested. An indication of the still inadequate testing regime: (from www.thetimes.co.uk/article/care-home-coronavirus-testing-pledge-abandoned-tqxf6mm6j - behind paywall but excerpt is enough). Ian
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Post by accipiter on Aug 4, 2020 8:24:05 GMT
Well of course there is such a thing as herd immunity whether or not it will have much effect regarding this virus is yet to be seen. .....
ian As you (ian) says, definitely could be herd immunity. Jury seems still out on catching it more than once as certainly in early days the catching twice instances were (in some cases) due to false test results and never actually having recovered fully (there is a long form infection - same virus but for some people it's not over in 7 days but can go on for months with varying symptoms). I think the question about herd immunity for C-19 is down to how effective vaccines can be. It is looking like immunity through infection depends of how bad your symptoms are (at least in terms of antibody which is currently being assumed to reflect degree of immunity). Asymptomatic and minor symptoms as you get a minimal anti-body response which is thought to result in minimal and short term immunity - which does not contribute much to herd immunity. Major symptoms=big antibody response which is thought to mean better and longer immunity. But major symptoms and lots of people will die - so if Cummings get his ideas accepted (seeking the virus spread through the population so create herd immunity) then massive death toll (but that sort of thing happens when you get people making the decisions who have no idea what they are doing). So herd immunity will depend on an effective vaccine (which will likely need topping-up at regular intervals). Re: People making decisions not knowing what they are doing, UK is still pretty well the worst in the world for death rate (despite US and Brazil's failings). You have to ignore Belgium due to the way it counts C-19 deaths and its testing regime so that still put's us at the top (as of 3 Aug) www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/. Ian Assuming the top “EXPERTS” are correct Ian - Psamathe; according to another top “EXPERT” one may as well drink a pint of beer then wear a mask, how opinions have changed amongst the EXPERTS. As for finding a safe efficient vaccine, then don’t hold your breath since it could take years to do so; (it took sixty years to find one for polio) which amounts to the same as herd immunity not existing which is what I was alluding to in my previous post. Incidentally, the police force are vital in keeping law and order, can you imagine what it would be like without one, sheer mayhem of the streets I shouldn’t wonder, which is probably why Melbourne Australia has enforced a night time curfew having the foresight to do so it’s just a great shame our government lacks the necessary foresight. Those clowns in power (our government) are far too soft in so "many ways"; in fact we should be introducing the rules outlined in the following link. It’s also interesting to note police officers have already been assaulted whilst carrying out their duty during the curfew something I mentioned will probably happen here if tougher restrictions are not introduced. www.heraldsun.com.au/coronavirus/melbourne-prepares-for-full-force-of-stage-four-lockdown-as-businesses-battle-against-closure/news-story/6f140003ecd6a3eca0f00d5abd93c04a
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Post by Psamathe on Aug 4, 2020 8:37:25 GMT
Assuming the top “EXPERTS” are correct Ian - Psamathe; according to another top “EXPERT” one may as well drink a pint of beer then wear a mask, how opinions have changed amongst the EXPERTS. As for finding a safe efficient vaccine, then don’t hold your breath since it could take years to do so; (it took sixty years to find one for polio) which amounts to the same as herd immunity not existing which is what I was alluding to in my previous post. ..... Those clowns in power (our government) are far too soft in so "many ways"; in fact we should be introducing the rules outlined in the following link. It’s also interesting to note police officers have already been assaulted whilst carrying out their duty during the curfew something I mentioned will probably happen here if tougher restrictions are not introduced. I'm unconvinced about the current requirement for face-masks and suspect it's more about Government trying to look like it's doing something than actually doing anything. The masks they were previously saying were useless were clinical grade masks. The ones we are all being required to wear are non-clinical, even bits of old T-shirt so even less effective. Only real "research" (I could find) shows that woven fabrics are not particularly effective e.g. BUT there is research showing airborne transmission (rather than droplet). Somebody asymptomatic will not be emitting droplets (that are caught by a good quality mask) but will be emitting airborne particles (that Amazon's trendy offerings will be completely useless at stopping). And you don't see people in supermarkets and shops coughing up loads of droplets that would be caught by a "retail grade" mask. So now even more useless than the previous "totally useless" were were told. When I had to attend hospital a few weeks ago I has to arrive wearing a mask and their procedure (for everybody attending) was that outside the entrance their staff would give you a proper mask to wear instead of whatever it was you'd arrived with! Maybe part of the trouble is our politicians expect to be obeyed and don't feel they need to provide justifications of reasons. They don't publish background to their decisions - we are expected to accept on trust and their track record has pretty-well destroyed any "trust". So their That said, wearing them is not a big deal, no real impact on your life so whatever the effectiveness it's not something worth arguing against or about. Ian
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Post by accipiter on Aug 4, 2020 12:18:34 GMT
Assuming the top “EXPERTS” are correct Ian - Psamathe; according to another top “EXPERT” one may as well drink a pint of beer then wear a mask, how opinions have changed amongst the EXPERTS. As for finding a safe efficient vaccine, then don’t hold your breath since it could take years to do so; (it took sixty years to find one for polio) which amounts to the same as herd immunity not existing which is what I was alluding to in my previous post. ..... Those clowns in power (our government) are far too soft in so "many ways"; in fact we should be introducing the rules outlined in the following link. It’s also interesting to note police officers have already been assaulted whilst carrying out their duty during the curfew something I mentioned will probably happen here if tougher restrictions are not introduced. I'm unconvinced about the current requirement for face-masks and suspect it's more about Government trying to look like it's doing something than actually doing anything. The masks they were previously saying were useless were clinical grade masks. The ones we are all being required to wear are non-clinical, even bits of old T-shirt so even less effective. Only real "research" (I could find) shows that woven fabrics are not particularly effective e.g. BUT there is research showing airborne transmission (rather than droplet). Somebody asymptomatic will not be emitting droplets (that are caught by a good quality mask) but will be emitting airborne particles (that Amazon's trendy offerings will be completely useless at stopping). And you don't see people in supermarkets and shops coughing up loads of droplets that would be caught by a "retail grade" mask. So now even more useless than the previous "totally useless" were were told. When I had to attend hospital a few weeks ago I has to arrive wearing a mask and their procedure (for everybody attending) was that outside the entrance their staff would give you a proper mask to wear instead of whatever it was you'd arrived with! Maybe part of the trouble is our politicians expect to be obeyed and don't feel they need to provide justifications of reasons. They don't publish background to their decisions - we are expected to accept on trust and their track record has pretty-well destroyed any "trust". So their That said, wearing them is not a big deal, no real impact on your life so whatever the effectiveness it's not something worth arguing against or about. Ian I had to attend my local surgery this morning Ian (July 4th) wearing a mask of course curtesy of the local super market, and was surprised to see the nurse and doctor were wearing one just the same as mine. Neither was there any form of screening between myself and the nurse and doctor which I found somewhat unsettling to say the very least. Anyhow as I walked across the park on my way home a dozen or so elderly people were sitting in a “very close ring” indulging in putting the world to rights wearing no masks, what they thought when they saw me walk by I cannot not say, I only know I asked myself why am I bothering, unless they know something I don’t; but then again perhaps the world has gone mad after all. Alan
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Post by Psamathe on Aug 4, 2020 13:22:49 GMT
... Anyhow as I walked across the park on my way home a dozen or so elderly people were sitting in a “very close ring” indulging in putting the world to rights wearing no masks, what they thought when they saw me walk by I cannot not say, I only know I asked myself why am I bothering, unless they know something I don’t; but then again perhaps the world has gone mad after all. Alan I thought Gov. guidance would not have suggested they should be wearing masks (but I missed the lunchtime news to am at least 3 hrs out of date as to latest set of laws/guidance/rules). I thought guidance (as of 9:00 am this morning anyway) was masks only in shops unless you work in the shop in which case masks are not required. So in the park in a cluster bubble you are OK -unless you live in Manchester or some other northern cities/districts in which case groups cannot exceed 6 people unless they are from only 2 households in which case they can be a group of more than 6. They must maintain social distancing unless they are from the same support bubble. But if they were over 70 and from Blackburn or Darwen or a few other places they should not have been outside atall. Simples really? Ian
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